Speculative Punts: Premier League Review 2012/13

This Barclays Premier League season has already been exhaustively reviewed by greater minds that I, so, in a moment of supreme unconventionality, I have decided to post a brief review of next season...

May 22nd 2013:

As Eddie Newton prepares to lead his Chelsea team out onto the Wembley turf, for their second Champions League final in two years, it is worth us taking the time to look back over what has been another extraordinary season in the Premier League.

And let us begin with Chelsea, and their interim manager's meteoric rise: the season's unlikely success story. If the cameras were to pick out Newton physically pinching himself on the touchline on Saturday evening, it would not come as a surprise.

For a start, Chelsea's failure to beat Bayern Munich in last season's final had left the club facing up to the unpalatable prospect of Thursday nights on ITV4. But when the Greek champions, Olympiakos, were forced to withdraw from the Champions League - following a financial meltdown in their home country that left them unavailable to pay their players with anything other than pieces of scrap paper with Euro symbols drawn on them - Chelsea won the lottery of Europa League qualifiers to join Tottenham, Arsenal and both Manchesters, in the world's premier club tournament.

It was stagnant league form that did for Roberto Di Matteo, as much as anything else, and when a delegation of Chelsea executives were unable to persuade Pep Guardiola to cut short his sabbatical, Newton was installed as interim manager and charged with reviving the clubs short-term fortunes. League form stabilised, and fifth place was secured, but it was in Europe that Newton's charges really excelled.

Roman Abramovich's stated goal since buying the club has been to win this competition. Could Eddie Newton, of all people, finally be the man to deliver European glory to his Russian paymaster?

And how will John Terry feel, missing his second Champions League final in succession, after elbowing Tottenham's Emmanuel Adebayor in the semi-final first leg. Despite his entirely convincing protestations that he had merely raised his elbow in order to cup his ear - so that he might better hear the instructions Newton was shouting to him - and that Adebayor had run into his arm (breaking his nose in the process) in a deliberate attempt to get him sent off, UEFA did not see fit to rescind the card and he will, yet again, miss out the opportunity to lift the trophy he has coveted for so long.

If Newton is perhaps manager of the year, then Manchester City are surely the team of the year, after deservedly winning the title by six points. Their spending in the summer surprised many, again topping £100 million, but their neat circumvention of FFP by securing a new £200 million shirt sponsorship deal - with an Abu Dhabi investment company in no way affiliated with Sheikh Mansour - ensured Roberto Mancini could strengthen as he saw fit.

The footage of Carlos Tevez dancing on a mocked up grave, marked with Sir Alex Ferguson's name, on the concourse outside Eastlands, took some of the shine off City's celebrations, but Tevez's spokesman insisted that the player didn't understand what he was dancing on and in no way meant to cause any offence to a man he deeply, deeply respects.

Player of the year is surely Robin Van Persie. The Manchester City forward forged a prolific partnership with the dynamic Sergio Aguero, which made City the top scorers in England, and won the Dutchman Europe's Golden Boot. His picture perfect, game winning volley against former club Arsenal (from a misplaced lofted back pass from Alex Song) was as spectacular as it was galling for supporters of the London club to witness. At least Gunners fans could console themselves with the fact that he didn't really celebrate the goal. And third place in the the league, of course.

Van Persie's volley was not destined to finish up goal of the season, however, as Peter Crouch scored a back heel from forty yards, for Stoke, away at Norwich. He insists that he meant it.

A close second for player of the year must be Andy Carroll, the highest English scorer in the league. Kenny Dalglish signed six wingers in the January transfer window, in the hope of providing the Geordie show pony with better service. Unfortunately, none of them could cross the ball, least of all Stuart Ripley who is well into his forties. Dalglish denied charges that he was out of touch with the modern game, but was forced to change his system somewhat. As a result, a revitalised Steven Gerrard was pushed out wide, and he provided the majority of the assists for Carroll's goals.

Liverpool finished ninth in the table, which is sure to disappoint some fans, however another victory in the Carling Cup final ensures Dalglish will keep the job for life. Mike Newell is rumoured to be a summer transfer target.

Tottenham enjoyed a good run in Europe but disappointed in the league, finishing a lowly sixth. Speculation about Harry Redknapp replacing Roy Hodgson as England boss seemed to unsettle the team, and their league challenge fell away. England's World Cup qualifying campaign has certainly faltered, but sections of the media seem intent on driving Hodgson out of the job regardless of results and it could be that, come August, Spurs will be looking for a new manager. It appears certain now that Gareth Bale and Luka Modric will leave White Hart Lane, so even if Redknapp does stay, he will have much rebuilding to do.

Sir Alex Ferguson is sure to have a busy summer. Mind you, that is what most pundits thought last year and very little business was done. His arthritic midfield is in desperate need of new blood. It seems he has persuaded Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes to stay on for yet another season, but their effectiveness has been diminished by age. Michael Carrick remains a shadow of the player he never actually was but did appear to be for some time. Anderson is still injured. Ferguson insists there is no value in the market, but Newcastle and Everton's transfer dealings continue to suggest otherwise. He still rates Park Ji-Sung.

Michael Owen seems to be destined to leave United after he, like Anderson, spent almost the entire season injured. The former England man made only one substitute appearance, in the club's final home game, which led to the United fans chanting "Are you Louis Saha in disguise?" at him for the full 17 minutes he was on the pitch.

Second seems a reasonable result for Manchester United, given their squad, but how much longer will the formerly outspoken Wayne Rooney tolerate the club's perceived lack of ambition in the transfer market?

Alan Pardew's French revolution continued to bear fruit, as Newcastle secured fourth place ahead of Chelsea. They will be praying, like Spurs last season, that Chelsea do not win the Champions League and take their place in next year's competition. Pardew himself spent much of the year ruling himself out of jobs that most pundits felt that he wasn't in the running for.

At the bottom of the table it is with a heavy heart that we bid farewell to West Bromwich Albion and their manager Alex McLeish, who has now guided west Midlands clubs to relegation from the Premier League on three occasions. Aston Villa last year were, of course, very nearly the fourth. Rumours continue to circulate that he is a Walsall fan.

West Ham are again relegated and, in a bizarre twist, "Big" Sam Allardyce and Steve Kean will swap places, just as they did last season; Kean having marshalled Burnley to the summit of the Championship following his sacking at Christmas by Blackburn Rovers. Anthony Modeste, Burnley's top scorer, will be a forced in the Premier League next year. Definitely one for your fantasy league team.

QPR are also facing up to a season in the Championship, however Mark Hughes was not proved wrong in his bold statement of last year that the club would "never face this situation again in my time here" following his sacking back in January.

Manchester v Manchester: Tevez the catalyst as City close in on the title

The "Blue Moon" is rising and Manchester City took one giant leap towards their first Premier League title last night, with a deserved 1-0 win over their bitter rivals, at the Ethiad. It was a muscular performance from an athletic City side, marshalled by the division's outstanding defender, Vincent Kompany, who went some way to cementing his burgeoning status as a City legend, when he headed in the winning goal on 45 minutes.

City's form began to falter in March, when they lost to Swansea and drew with both Norwich and Sunderland, allowing Manchester United to usurp them at the top of the table. A 1-0 defeat to Arsenal followed at the beginning of April, and it looked as if the title race was all but over. But they have rallied in recent weeks thanks, in part, to the return of the want-away Carlos Tevez, from his five month sabbatical.

Many questioned the wisdom of bringing back a player who was seen as a divisive figure, Sir Alex Ferguson himself stating the belief that it was a "desperate" move. How would the squad react? It was suggested that it weakened manager Roberto Mancini's position, who - in the aftermath of the Munich game and Tevez's apparent refusal to play - had publicly stated the Argentinian would never wear a City shirt again. There were clearly dangers to allowing Tevez back into the fold; it was a move that could have backfired.

But it didn't.

Since returning to the side, Tevez form has been nothing short of astonishing, when you consider how long her had been out of the game. In eight appearances - several of those as substitute - he has scored four goals and created three more for his team-mates. But his impact cannot just be measured in goals and assists.

Last night, City had a drive that United lacked; they played with pace, verve and took the game to their opponents. Tevez typified this. He was seen battling for the ball on the edge of his own penalty area, cutting through the midfield with direct, powerful runs. His energy is infectious, his work-rate outstanding; he has been the spark that has reignited City's title challenge.

For Manchester United fans it was an evening of disappointment; less at the result, and more at the performance. Many have criticised Sir Alex Ferguson for setting up negatively. With the inclusion of Park, it had that look of a side set up not to lose, a tactic Ferguson has employed to good effect in many crucial Premier League clashes and European away games, over the years. But United simply didn't have the legs in midfield to match City's purposeful work on and off the ball. If Scholes is to be the fullcrum of your side at 37, you must surround him with players with pace and energy. United did not do that.

Park is a spent force; he was poor. Giggs lacks the drive of old. Carrick is a good player but has never been particularly energetic. What United wouldn't give for a player in the mould of Yaya Toure.

Again they missed Darren Fletcher, sidelined with an incurable bowel condition. Rumours are circulating today that he is set to retire from football. If true, that will only serve to heap more misery on the Old Trafford club, who you feel are moving towards a crossroads. The squad needs to be refreshed. The first team - with the exception of Wayne Rooney - lacks the outstanding talents that City possess. The question remains: will Ferguson be given the money to overhaul his ageing squad, or have the Glazers - as many fans fear - bled the coffers dry?

There is still some way to go in the title race, and Mancini, perhaps picking up on the characteristic pessimism of many City fans - born out of years of disappointment - maintains that United are favourites. But City are surely in the driving seat.

Nasri and Tevez are hitting form; David Silva and Sergio Aguero are recovering some of theirs, after mid-season dips, whilst Yaya Toure and Vincent Kompany continue to impress.

Their fate is in their hands and, on the evidence of last night, Manchester City look in no mood to be denied a first Premier League title.

Arsenal 1-2 Wigan and The Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain conundrum

It is hard to be too critical of Arsene Wenger and Arsenal after their resurgence over the last few weeks, and indeed this loss owed far more to a determined and accomplished defensive display from Wigan Athletic, than a particularly abject performance from the Gunners. True Wenger's men were not at their best, but credit must be given to Roberto Martinez, who has instilled belief in a Wigan side most thought were all but relegated after they lost eight matches on the spin, earlier in the season.

Pre-match, Sky's Gary Neville - pound for pound the best pundit in the business right now - predicted Arsenal, at home and in good form, would be extremely positive from the outset, and this seemed to be how Wigan saw things as well. They lined up with ten - often eleven - men behind the ball, worked hard to win possession and then counter attacked with gusto, dispensing with the pretty passing that has been Martinez's managerial trademark. It was a gutsy performance by Wigan; they played effective, direct football, battled to a man, and left Arsenal struggling to create clear cut chances.

After the game Wenger bemoaned the referee's failure to curb Wigan's time wasting - and he had a point - but the truth is, Arsenal looked as though they could have played for another half hour and still not got their equaliser.

Indeed for much of the second half, Wenger's men looked devoid of inspiration. Benayoun was ineffective and Walcott well marshalled; Van Persie was repeatedly forced to drop deep to get a touch of the ball, and you felt the crowd willing the Frenchman to make a change. When it came, the sight of half-man half-forehead, Gervinho, on the touchline received a lukewarm response from the crowd.

The player they really wanted to see, was Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.

The Arsenal manager has shown a marked reluctance to give game time to Oxlade-Chamberlain over the last few weeks, and given the player's form earlier in campaign, Arsenal fans have been left scratching their heads.

Arsene Wenger's reputation as a manager who is highly adept at developing young players, is well earned, and it is no surprise that many young talents have, in recent years, chosen Arsenal over other top Premier League clubs, as the place to continue their football eduction. Is Wenger simply protecting his player, his years of experience telling him that the young midfielder has been elevated to the position of "fan favourite" before his time? It could be that he simply does not want to expose Oxlade-Chamberlain to those kind of pressures just yet.

Another school of thought is that it is Wenger's legendary stubbornness that prevents him from playing the teenager. It seems that whenever the fans demand something, the Frenchman digs his heels in and for several games earlier in the year there was a real battle of wills between manager and fans, most notably when Oxlade-Chamberlain - Arsenal's best player on the day - was withdrawn for Andrei Arshavin, in the game against Manchester United. Arshavin's poor defending would then play a part in United's winner.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eedFlvSaSXM

That, in particular, was a decision that baffled, and it came at a point in the season when many supporters had begun openly questioning whether Wenger should continue at the club next season.

With the team now back to winning ways, is this Wenger's way of showing the fans that he was right all along, that they can win without Oxlade-Chamberlain? Is this Wenger reminding the fans that Arsene knows best?

Quite possibly but, ever the conspiracy theorist, I'd like to put forward another suggestion...

After his performances in the Champions League and against United, the clamour for Oxlade-Chamberlain to start for Arsenal was deafening. But in addition, and perhaps crucially, there was talk of an England call up. Most worrying for Wenger, there was the prospect of his young talent being taken to Euro 2012.

Arsene Wenger is often described as a control freak. He is certainly meticulous and, many would say, dogmatic in his approach to management. He does things his way and he will not be swayed, by the capriciousness of the fans or bandwagon journalism; in many ways, admirable qualities.

It would be fair to say that he has never been a fan of international football and he is constantly complaining about his younger players being called up. For a manager so much in control at his club, a manager who prides himself on knowing how to nurture young players, to lose sight of them for weeks on end for under-21 or full international duty, must be, you would imagine, almost impossible to cope with. The wrangle over Theo Walcott's inclusion in the squad for the European under-21 championship in 2009 is evidence of this...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/england/5395815/Theo-Walcott-inclusion-in-England-Under-21-squad-leaves-Arsene-Wenger-simmering.html

In fairness to Wenger, his concerns about Walcott's fitness proved to be well founded. But the point is that the Frenchman has previous. The fact that Walcott - a young man passionate about playing for his country - had to "defy" his manager, to accept his call up speaks volumes.

I believe this is the reason behind Oxlade-Chamberlain not receiving the time on the pitch that many seasoned Arsenal supporters believe he deserves. By holding Oxlade-Chamberlain back, Wenger is ensuring that the England manager - whoever that may be come June - will simply not be able to justify calling up his teen prodigy. Wenger will have him all to himself for a summer of tedious, fitness building - and in no way commercially motivated - pre-season tours of Asia and the Far East.

Wayne Rooney forced himself into the England side in the run up to Euro 2004, through the unimpeachable quality of his football that year, and took the tournament by storm, before his unfortunate injury. Oxlade-Chamberlain's performances earlier this season were similarly eye-catching, and if his form had continued he would surely have been in Poland and the Ukraine this summer.

Of course Arsene Wenger's first concern must be Arsenal but, in holding back the talented midfielder, he could be robbing the nation - and the wider footballing world - of the potential breakout star of Euro 2012.

Arsene Wenger's Easter Epiphany?

Has Arsene Wenger finally seen the light?

In 2008, I was asked to write an article on the subject of captaincy, in the wake of William Gallas losing the armband at Arsenal. The move was prompted by the publication of an interview Gallas had given to the Associated Press, in which he claimed that his team were "not brave enough," needed more "soldiers" and were fighting amongst themselves.

Gallas had been a divisive figure during his tenure, and his infamous sit-down protest on the pitch at St Andrews was still fresh in the memory when, on reading those comments, Arsene Wenger felt compelled to remove the Frenchman from his position, after less than eighteen months in the role.

At the time, Wenger said this, on the subject of captaincy:

“I don't believe too much in leadership… I believe more in good passing than a guy who jumps around with the hands in the air and plays the leader.”

Three days later, Cesc Fabregas was appointed as Arsenal captain.

There is a school of thought that says you should make your best player you captain; a player who leads by example, the sheer quality of their play inspiring their team-mates to greater heights. There are obvious benefits, not least that you bind that player even tighter to the club, which can help ward off potential suitors. But, at the time, I argued that what the Arsenal first team desperately needed were more traditional "leaders": dogged competitors with a winning mentality, in mould of a John Terry or, more pertinently, a Tony Adams, the inspirational Arsenal captain Wenger inherited when he arrived at the club.

The argument that this Arsenal side lack backbone, and are mentally frail, is at least three years old. He may have been wrong to say it, in the way that he said it, but I believe that, ultimately, William Gallas was right.

As Arsenal's season has collapsed in a cascade of disappointing draws and defeats, Wenger has cut an increasingly lonely figure on the touchline: pacing, skinny-limbed; his face pinched into a permanent frown; complaining vociferously - and often without foundation - about perceived injustices. He has also been increasingly chippy with the press, stating his belief that both he and his team have been subjected to sustained and unwarranted criticism.

Wenger clearly feels victimised. But the irony is that it is precisely because he is held in such high regard, that he is the subject of such persistent and repetitive criticism: he is a couple of leaders away from a great side; a centre back away from a great side; a goalkeeper with presence; a midfielder with bite. Three or four players of proven quality are required, with the experience to help solidify what has the potential to be a great team. We've all been saying it: fans, players, pundits, the press. If only he would open his cheque book.

I believe that most neutral fans - on some level, at least - want Wenger's Arsenal to succeed: they play football the way the vast majority of us think it should be played. We can see Wenger's faults - he is dogmatic, stubborn - but we hold the belief that if he would just compromise - for one transfer window, for one summer - if he would just go out and spend, then surely the trophies would come. But as each year has gone by, Wenger has dug his heels in ever deeper, determined to prove us all wrong.

Arsenal fans are clearly losing patience with their legendary manager. Defeat to Birmingham in the Carling Cup final was the last straw for many. For others it has been the implosion of their challenge for the Premier League, in a season where their rivals have stuttered and the title was there for the taking. Rumours have surfaced that Wenger will walk away, that Real Madrid will come calling if Mourinho leaves the Bernabeu at the end of the season. Some have even started calling for him (whisper it) to quit.

But now, there are signs that the previously unshakable faith Wenger has shown in his footballing philosophy could, indeed, be waning. Contrast his comments, following Arsenal's defeat at Bolton yesterday, with the quote from three years ago:

"It's very unsatisfactory... we didn't take our chances. That is frustrating because I feel the potential is there but we still lack something: maturity and experience and calm in important situations."

Alleluia.

Perhaps this will be enough to persuade those doubters who, like Morgan, have descended into a fug of despondency in recent weeks. The truth is, we won't know if Wenger really has seen the light until the transfer window shuts at the end of the summer.